Page 44 - Shahrvand BC No.1241
P. 44
English Section
The Aftermath of the Arab SpringThe 44
Changing Map of Middle East Power
federal state; at worst, the country will go the way 1392 دادرخ10 جمعه- 1241 شماره/ سال متسیب
of Somalia. Either way, Syria is currently firmly in
the loser’s camp.
Iraq could have been a winner, had it been able to
translate the recovery of its oil industry and the
withdrawal of US troops into political stabilization
and regional influence. But, with Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki’s government widely considered
to be another authoritarian and sectarian regime,
Iraq has not been able to gain any soft power.
Moreover, the chances that Iraqi Kurdistan
will achieve de facto or de jure independence
are greater than ever. Iraq’s Kurds may even
be able to extend their influence into Kurdish-
populated northern Syria, thereby becoming a
more influential regional player than the Iraqi
government in Baghdad.
Political polarization in the region
Redactie | Tuesday 28 May 2013 of soft power in the region. The impending fall Neighbouring Iran seems to be the quintessential In touch with Iranian diversity
of Israel’s most reliable enemy, Syrian President survivor. It has coped with the international
Volker Perthes Bashar al-Assad, concerns Israel almost as much community’s increasingly stifling sanctions, while Vol. 20 / No. 1241 - Friday, May 31, 2013
as the loss of its ally, Egypt’s former President maintaining its nuclear program and continuing
The eruption of the Arab revolts put power Hosni Mubarak. With Israel’s economy and to participate in the diplomatic process with the 44
relations among Middle Eastern countries in a deterrent capability stronger than ever, however, P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United
state of flux, and both winners and losers have no regional player poses a genuine security threat Nations Security Council, plus Germany). Iran has
emerged. But, given that the strengths and to Israel in the short term. strengthened its influence in Iraq, and has helped
weaknesses of most of the actors are highly to keep the Assad regime, a key ally, in power
contingent, the regional balance of power remains Meanwhile, Qatar’s diligent efforts to expand its much longer than expected.
highly fluid. By Volker Perthes influence over the last two decades have paid off,
with the country developing considerable power But rising political polarization in the region could
As that balance currently stands, Egypt continues of attraction. Since 2011, Qatar has scaled up its undermine Iran’s standing. As regional conflicts
to be one of the region’s most influential actors, involvement in its neighbours’ affairs, backing the are increasingly defined along Sunni-Shia lines,
with the success or failure of its political and Libyan revolution, the Egyptian government, and it is becoming more difficult for Shia-dominated
economic transition affecting how other Arab the Syrian opposition. Iran to gain influence in Sunni-majority countries.
countries develop. But Egypt is weighed down And Iran’s support for Assad’s brutal regime in
by domestic concerns, including a plummeting But the Qataris may be overplaying their hand. Syria is damaging further its once-considerable
economy and a security situation in which the Qatar has money, but no other hard power, and it soft power in other Arab countries.
military is used for police tasks. has been criticized for its interference in Syria and
its support for the Muslim Brotherhood. If Qatar Saudi Arabia can also be counted as a survivor, as
The expansion of Egypt’s soft power will depend fails to use its resources wisely, it may lose the it copes with deep strategic insecurity stemming
on the ability of its first democratically elected legitimacy that it needs to underpin its patronage. from Iran’s efforts to undermine its position, social
government, led by President Mohamed Morsi, unrest in its neighbour and ally Bahrain, and the
to take difficult decisions and forge domestic The loser’s camp Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power in Egypt.
consensus. Success in establishing effective Saudi leaders have also become increasingly
governance would establish a model that many of Meanwhile, Syria’s civil war highlights the loss suspicious of their American allies, on whom the
Egypt’s neighbours would seek to emulate, at least of that country’s once-considerable influence in country’s security depends.
partly. the region. Instead, Syria has become the object
of a geopolitical struggle among other regional Significant domestic challenges
Turkey’s economic power actors. But the efforts of the Gulf states to arm
the Syrian opposition are insufficient to set the At the same time, the Saudi leadership is facing
In this respect, Turkey is a good example. Turkey’s conflict on a definitive course, especially given significant domestic challenges, including vast
power rests primarily on its vibrant economy. the heavy weapons that the Assad regime has at its economic disparities, inadequate services, growing
Its impressive military strength is of limited use disposal. And the opposition has not been able to frustration with the lack of political freedom, and
as an instrument of power, and its political clout appropriate the reputation and clout that Assad has a difficult succession process within the royal
has been overestimated, particularly in Syria. A lost. family. Nevertheless, though Saudi Arabia’s soft
rapprochement with Israel and, more important, a power is waning, its massive oil wealth will likely
lasting peace with its Kurdish population, would In fact, regardless of the balance of power between ensure that it remains a regional heavyweight.
boost Turkey’s regional influence. the regime and its opponents, Syria probably will
not reestablish a strong, centralized government Non-state actors also play a crucial role in the
Israel also remains an overall winner, despite the for decades, if ever. At best, Syria will emerge Middle East’s balance of power. Religious
changing strategic environment and its virtual lack from the current conflict with a decentralized or minorities have become more insecure. The
once-oppressed Kurds are gaining ground. Of the
main transnational political groups, the Muslim
Brotherhood has been the clearest winner.
The Aftermath of the Arab SpringThe 44
Changing Map of Middle East Power
federal state; at worst, the country will go the way 1392 دادرخ10 جمعه- 1241 شماره/ سال متسیب
of Somalia. Either way, Syria is currently firmly in
the loser’s camp.
Iraq could have been a winner, had it been able to
translate the recovery of its oil industry and the
withdrawal of US troops into political stabilization
and regional influence. But, with Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki’s government widely considered
to be another authoritarian and sectarian regime,
Iraq has not been able to gain any soft power.
Moreover, the chances that Iraqi Kurdistan
will achieve de facto or de jure independence
are greater than ever. Iraq’s Kurds may even
be able to extend their influence into Kurdish-
populated northern Syria, thereby becoming a
more influential regional player than the Iraqi
government in Baghdad.
Political polarization in the region
Redactie | Tuesday 28 May 2013 of soft power in the region. The impending fall Neighbouring Iran seems to be the quintessential In touch with Iranian diversity
of Israel’s most reliable enemy, Syrian President survivor. It has coped with the international
Volker Perthes Bashar al-Assad, concerns Israel almost as much community’s increasingly stifling sanctions, while Vol. 20 / No. 1241 - Friday, May 31, 2013
as the loss of its ally, Egypt’s former President maintaining its nuclear program and continuing
The eruption of the Arab revolts put power Hosni Mubarak. With Israel’s economy and to participate in the diplomatic process with the 44
relations among Middle Eastern countries in a deterrent capability stronger than ever, however, P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United
state of flux, and both winners and losers have no regional player poses a genuine security threat Nations Security Council, plus Germany). Iran has
emerged. But, given that the strengths and to Israel in the short term. strengthened its influence in Iraq, and has helped
weaknesses of most of the actors are highly to keep the Assad regime, a key ally, in power
contingent, the regional balance of power remains Meanwhile, Qatar’s diligent efforts to expand its much longer than expected.
highly fluid. By Volker Perthes influence over the last two decades have paid off,
with the country developing considerable power But rising political polarization in the region could
As that balance currently stands, Egypt continues of attraction. Since 2011, Qatar has scaled up its undermine Iran’s standing. As regional conflicts
to be one of the region’s most influential actors, involvement in its neighbours’ affairs, backing the are increasingly defined along Sunni-Shia lines,
with the success or failure of its political and Libyan revolution, the Egyptian government, and it is becoming more difficult for Shia-dominated
economic transition affecting how other Arab the Syrian opposition. Iran to gain influence in Sunni-majority countries.
countries develop. But Egypt is weighed down And Iran’s support for Assad’s brutal regime in
by domestic concerns, including a plummeting But the Qataris may be overplaying their hand. Syria is damaging further its once-considerable
economy and a security situation in which the Qatar has money, but no other hard power, and it soft power in other Arab countries.
military is used for police tasks. has been criticized for its interference in Syria and
its support for the Muslim Brotherhood. If Qatar Saudi Arabia can also be counted as a survivor, as
The expansion of Egypt’s soft power will depend fails to use its resources wisely, it may lose the it copes with deep strategic insecurity stemming
on the ability of its first democratically elected legitimacy that it needs to underpin its patronage. from Iran’s efforts to undermine its position, social
government, led by President Mohamed Morsi, unrest in its neighbour and ally Bahrain, and the
to take difficult decisions and forge domestic The loser’s camp Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power in Egypt.
consensus. Success in establishing effective Saudi leaders have also become increasingly
governance would establish a model that many of Meanwhile, Syria’s civil war highlights the loss suspicious of their American allies, on whom the
Egypt’s neighbours would seek to emulate, at least of that country’s once-considerable influence in country’s security depends.
partly. the region. Instead, Syria has become the object
of a geopolitical struggle among other regional Significant domestic challenges
Turkey’s economic power actors. But the efforts of the Gulf states to arm
the Syrian opposition are insufficient to set the At the same time, the Saudi leadership is facing
In this respect, Turkey is a good example. Turkey’s conflict on a definitive course, especially given significant domestic challenges, including vast
power rests primarily on its vibrant economy. the heavy weapons that the Assad regime has at its economic disparities, inadequate services, growing
Its impressive military strength is of limited use disposal. And the opposition has not been able to frustration with the lack of political freedom, and
as an instrument of power, and its political clout appropriate the reputation and clout that Assad has a difficult succession process within the royal
has been overestimated, particularly in Syria. A lost. family. Nevertheless, though Saudi Arabia’s soft
rapprochement with Israel and, more important, a power is waning, its massive oil wealth will likely
lasting peace with its Kurdish population, would In fact, regardless of the balance of power between ensure that it remains a regional heavyweight.
boost Turkey’s regional influence. the regime and its opponents, Syria probably will
not reestablish a strong, centralized government Non-state actors also play a crucial role in the
Israel also remains an overall winner, despite the for decades, if ever. At best, Syria will emerge Middle East’s balance of power. Religious
changing strategic environment and its virtual lack from the current conflict with a decentralized or minorities have become more insecure. The
once-oppressed Kurds are gaining ground. Of the
main transnational political groups, the Muslim
Brotherhood has been the clearest winner.
