2020 PATCH SPRINT RACE PREDICTIONS  
   
It will be a staggered start, but will they be staggering to the finish?

Last year, USA oddsmaker Danny Sheridan hit correctly on four of the six divisions. For 2020 Danny says: "No time this year to come up with an individual "skinny" for each runner, but below, I will make a general comment for every division. This year, there is a fine mix of talented newcomers, past champions, and a few that have come close to winning in the past and are very hungry!"

"As always, finish times will be heavily influenced by the conditions.  The weather is expected to be hot and this will slow down the times, but not as much as in some years, as the racers have been training all summer in the heat, plus the trails are incredibly dry."
Place  # MEN'S RACERS Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 033 Aaron Newell 1:57:47 THE FAVORITE: Newell has raced the Patch just once and did it in excellent fashion, setting a then course record of 2:01:09-- still the second fastest in event history. He is in excellent shape, having just set a FKT on the ten-mountain Great Range Traverse (5:03:52), eclipsing the mark of current Patch course record holder Ryan Atkins.

THE CONTENDERS: Arndt, a newcomer, comes highly decorated with sick results on the track, road, ultras and trail events. He also brews a mean cup of coffee... Road champion Drowne has been working trails and peaks fairly hard this year, but can he keep up with the mountain studs?... Wellford, a former Patch, 46er, Great Range, and Presidential Range record holder now seems content to guide others down his path... Recchia is a wild card with a chance at a podium

THE REST: There are so many good runners in this event now! Most everyone ranked 6-13 has bettered 2:30 in the past; that may very well be their goal this year. Keep a close eye on Metakis who has been as fast as 2:21, has bettered the three-hour mark 16 times (2nd most all-time) and has been training very well, albeit mostly in Central Park... Fiegl has been under three hours 20-times, and is in line to complete a record-setting 33rd Sprint... Like Metakis and Fiegl, Rayburn is closing in on 20 all-time Patch finishes... Reinckens is hot off of an impressive win at the July 4th Firecracker Race, but has long been an underachiever in the Patch... Gittler skips the race to join a protest march in Nebraska.

There has never been a year when
every men's racer was faster than four hours, so I'm going out on a limb here!
2 045 Nick Arndt 2:00:02
3 001 Jeremy Drowne 2:06:23
4 002 Jan Wellford 2:10:14
5 039 Ryan Recchia 2:18:10
6 031 Billy Reagan 2:26:15
7 004 Kyle Smith 2:34:38
8 006 Jason Metakis 2:37:40
9 005 Jason Fiegl 2:40:03
10 003 Bill Hoffman 2:44:57
11 025 Tommy Reinckens 2:51:04
12 029 Brian White 2:53:22
13 023 Andrew Gonzalez 3:00:12
14 026 Jameson Fiegl 3:05:22
15 008 Derek Payne 3:07:11
16 041 Michael Stahl 3:07:58
17 007 Chris Myers 3:10:20
18 037 Caleb Remillard 3:14:07
19 011 John Rayburn 3:17:30
20 036 Philip Lynch 3:19:52
21 047 Robert Galinski 3:21:04
22 035 Tony Lewis 3:27:01
23 010 Brian DeGroat 3:48:19
052 Jacob Gittler DNS
Place  # WOMEN'S RACERS Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 046 Hannah Grall 2:31:57 THE FAVORITES: This one will be exciting to witness, but painful to take part in. Both Grall and Winkler are newcomers- not too familar with the course. Consequently, they will stick together and see who can literally have a Patch SPRINT to the finish. We say Grall takes it by a minute, but anything can happen, and there's also an outside chance that the 14-year old women's course record will go down... Minchoff, another race rookie, will give up a fair amount of time on the downhills.

THE CONTENDERS: We said several years ago that Schreiner would be a future race winner and we're sticking to that. This is her 10th Patch, but she's still just 16, and a few years away from the podium... Moffett is in outstanding shape and knows the course better than anyone in the division, but her "I just want to feel good" approach prevents her from really attacking... Remillard is the unknown here, and could wind up one-half hour faster.

THE REST: A Sheridan tip-of-the-hat here to Gonzalez, Lylis, Lounsbury, and course record holder Nordyke. This quartet are the picture of dedication to this event: Not only is their average age 53, but together they have a combined total of 53 Patch Sprints!... Preston, a former Top-3 racer, shows up at the start before concluding "I'm just not feeling it today", while Tuttle, another podium finisher skips the race to "try something harder."
2 044 Charlotte Winkler 2:33:02
3 043 Stacie Minchoff 2:55:18
4 009 Katrin Schreiner 3:09:16
5 016 Katie Moffett 3:20:44
6 048 Maria Remillard 3:22:36
7 012 Kathlynn Allen 3:27:11
8 013 Lauren Hughes 3:27:11
9 018 Deborah Nordyke 3:29:45
10 042 Ella Messner 3:31:54
11 030 Karen Lounsbury 3:35:38
12 039 Mac Guthrie 3:37:06
13 014 Sarah Green 3:38:24
14 017 Pam Gonzalez 3:40:08
15 039 Anna Reynolds 3:47:37
16 027 Stephanie Lylis 3:50:56
17 028 Cara Gentry 4:01:23
18 032 Brooke Reagan 4:03:13
040 Kierstin Wall 4:03:13
20 034 Angie Sussdorf 4:09:29
024 Laura Tuttle DNS
052 Annie Preston DNS
Place (Net)  # CLYDESDALE Finish Time The Fat  (total time - pounds exceeding 200 = Net Time)
         
1 019 Sean Green 4:48:01 THE FAVORITE: The only thing preventing Green from winning is if one of the heavier men's racers (above) has a big dinner and enters this division… Herz heads to the course for an early round of golf, has a string of pars and birdies, and forgets all about the race.
2 151 Ken Herz DNS
Place  # HALF-SPRINT Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 221 Kelly Kupers 54:09 THE FAVORITE: Kupers, the class of the field, could easily do the full course, and possibly garner a Top-3.

THE CONTENDERS: Lesburg & Lynch, both late entries, are two of six teenagers in this division and both are podium contenders... Hoffman comes from a solid racing family and looks to follow in the footsteps of her son, who won this division in 2018… Gadway goes out early and finishes quickly so she can spend the rest of the morning drinking Bloody Mary's.

The rest of the field takes a leisurly pace, stopping often to chat with folks along the way (putting their masks back on, of course).
2 229 Eve Lesburg 58:41
3 223 Naomi Hoffman 58:47
4 230 Molly Lynch 1:03:16
5 222 Sue Gadway 1:11:08
6 225 Kelly Sandler 1:17:12
7t 226 Molly Sandler 1:24:26
227 Sophie Piggott 1:24:26
228 Willow Herz 1:24:26
10 224 Anna Sandler 1:37:22  
Place  # TREKKER Finish Time The Skinny
         
*** TREKKERS do not compete for placing
Historically, Wiley races the Patch much more than she treks, so we expect she will do a slow comfortable jog… The other Wylie, along with Mullholland, will be among the slowest on course (as they are every year), but they will do it with laughs, chatter and smiles from start to finish (as they do every year)... Singer sells his spot in the race to another runner in exchange for a $1,412 donation to the Adirondack Scholarship Foundation.
- 022 Kathleen Wiley 4:03:11
015 Catherine Platt 4:49:33
- 020 Kathy Mullholland 5:20:52
- 021 Natalie Wylie 5:20:52
- 024 Karen Foster 5:20:52
051 Tim Singer DNS
Place  # KINDER SPRINT Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 271 Olivia Drowne 33:34 THE FAVORITE: I anticipate that there will be several additional starters here come race time; however, Drowne will still capture the division fairly handily. Thanks to the Drowne family for the Patch stickers!
2 272 Elle Russo DNS
     
     
         
Above list based on entrants and projected entrants through August 19
Race number, subject to change, based on most recent placing
SEE RESULTS FROM PAST YEARS