2019 PATCH SPRINT RACE PREDICTIONS  
   
Just when you thought the course could not get any longer!!!

Heavy logging on the steep decsent of Bare mountain has led to a temporary re-routing. The new line is a bit longer and, due to hundreds of fallen trees, quite a bit slower. Race officials hope that this will only be a one-year detour.

Last year, USA oddsmaker Danny Sheridan hit correctly on five of the six divisions, including calling the breaking of the elusive two-hour barrier. For 2019, Danny says: "The record for the women is very likely to fall, while the men's race, featuring four past champions and seven others who have placed in the Top-5, could be a classic!

"As always, finish times will be heavily influenced by the conditions.  The weather is expected to be comfortable for both racers and spectators, but the course will be challenging due to recent rain and, of course, logging!  I've added 3% on to everyone's finish time under normal conditions"
Place  # MEN'S RACERS Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 1 Jan Wellford 2:08:17 Has been 2:10 or better five times.  No reason to believe he'll be slower this time.
2 3 Jeremy Drowne 2:14:10 Fast racer but by avoiding hill training, his quads could conspire to bring him down
3 2 Austin Huneck 2:15:00 His record 40:37 Suglarloaf to Pok-O split (2015) will likely never be broken
4 6 Jason Metakis 2:24:09 Most consistent racer in Patch Sprint history has impressive PR at the age of 42
5 64 Aaron Huneck 2:24:14 Is this the year he catches his brother?  No it isn't
6 8 Tom Brownell 2:28:23 The new Jerry Ross; He'll be running sub-3 hour Patches well into his 60's
7 73 Grant Haynes 2:29:15 Dude doesn’t train at all but makes it look pretty easy every time
8 13 Michael Burgess 2:33:56 Has been training under the radar…. But training fast!
9 15 Kyle Smith 2:34:41 Had more spring training time on the course than any other racer
10 63 Harrison Chalnick 2:39:51 The comeback kid:  How far has he returned from a broken femur?
11 106 Travis Dunham 2:40:08 Elite runner at 5K and 10K distance.  Uncertain as to his trail endurance potential.
12 7 Bill Hoffman 2:41:27 Has completed 37 marathons or Ultras wearing sandals, including the 2018 Leadville 100
13 9 Andrew Gonzalez 2:41:44 Marijuana legalized on Friday in NY, eats too many Cheetos[1]
14 93 Volker Burkowski 2:50:16 Hands down coolest name in this year's race
15 18 Derek Payne 2:59:03 Reaches his long-awaited goal of bettering three hours
16 10 Erik Schreiner 3:00:48 Fastest newly minted adult in the field
17 11 Cody York 3:00:48 Carbo dinner romaine e-coli scare, loses a minute
18 16 Christopher Myers 3:01:46 Just six victories away from catching Fiegl for most overall championships
19 65 Chris Lafty 3:03:22 Contemplated 8:00am start but ends up improving time by doing the faster 9:00 start
20 14 Edward Gravelle 3:08:35 Thinks Kobak is Satan chasing him, runs hellishly good time
21 22 Jacob Gittler 3:09:50 Instinctively runs home from North End Friday night; costs him energy and time
22 56 Liam Hoffman 3:12:57 Making the natural leap from victory in the half to running the full course. Impressive!
23 17 Jon Schreiner 3:14:10 Still not over "feeling empty" about Game of Thrones finale
24 20 Jameson Fiegl 3:16:53 Second generation rivalry:  Jameson and Luke are out for blood
25 34 Luke Moffett 3:16:58 Lets Jameson win at the finish because "I'm just not that competitive"
26 21 Jason Fiegl 3:18:19 31st Patch completion: "How many roads must a man walk down"
27 12 Zach Floss 3:19:50 Eats meth hidden in Willsboro Diner salt shaker by parolee. Crushes 1st half of course.
28 27 John Rayburn 3:27:24 Finds prehistoric fossil at base of Bare, excitement improves time by seven minutes
29 35 Mac Sinclair 3:30:07 A wicked sophomore slump prevents a sub-3 Sprint in 2019
30 79 Peter Talpey 3:30:10 He's been crushing the NASTAR Pats Peak ski circuit this past year
31 104 Clayton Schmale 3:30:14 Still pissed that Eric Shreiner and Aidan Rowley beat him at XC Ski sectionals
32 23 Tim Huneck 3:31:04 If you need delightful company on course, seek out Tim
33 86 Eliot Schneider 3:33:58 Youngest racer in men's field will contend for championship by 2027
34 75 Joe Zimmerman 3:35:32 And in the end, the path you take is equal to the path you make
35 36 Tim Singer 3:37:35 Twists ankle twice on the fallen debris coming down Bare
36 67 Miles Chalnick 3:37:49 Name Anagram:   Mechanic Skill
37 38 Brian DeGroat 3:40:03 Claims to be in bad shape. It doesn’t matter, he’s just P-S-Y-C-H-E-D to be in the A-D-K.
38 88 Josh Preuss 3:41:28 His impressive rock climbing resume will help him if he gets lost on Pok-O
39 39 Peter Minde 3:43:45 Is convinced that the new Royal baby is named for the guy in the comic
40 85 Griffin Schneider 3:46:40 Tweeks his knee during taper jog day before race
41 80 Brian Mann 3:49:29 Grew up in Alaska which will help him if the temps dip below 50 on race day
42 84 Peter Schneider 3:53:07 Just when you thought Peter Schneider would never race the Patch, here he comes!
43 46 Robert Weatherwax 4:03:09 The competition for the 60+ age group has never been more fierce
44 72 Jon McDonald 4:04:31 New job, faster runner?
45 42 David Campbell 4:15:41 Pretty decent distance runner fully untested on the steep, rocky terrain
46 89 Leo Matsuzawa 4:22:34 Five minutes in - the steep part on Bare - leaves him wondering why he did this
47 41 Mike Dorr 4:26:59 Definitely has the potential to finish in a time of 4:26:58
48 68 Brendan Gibson 4:30:30 Really a trekker who, if racing, could do a 2:56:19
49 51 Matt Wooten 4:47:35 Name Anagram:  Two Ton Meat
50 55 Sean Green 5:14:19 Ate too many Kelly Zim cookies this semester
51 96 Tim Reagan DNF Takes Quit Ye Like Men too literally - dnf
52 4 Brian Beyerbach DNS Was offered $10,000 appearance fee but is holding out for $15K
53 24 Bryce Beyerbach DNS Bunny helps to bring him down Friday night, never shows up for the start
Place  # WOMEN'S RACERS Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 5 Sara Dunham 2:23:48 Cakewalk to her second division win in as many tries
2 94 Deirdre Forcier 2:52:24 Race rookie "never expected the perils of the back side of Sugarloaf!"
3 26 Shannon Drowne 3:10:14 There's a good chance that all three Drownes will finish third in their respective divisions
4 19 Deborah Nordyke 3:15:52 As ever, rumors of her demise were greatly exaggerated
5 83 Jesse Donovan 3:14:54 One of only two women starting at 9:00 and thus eligible to win division championship
6 95 Eileen Mowrey 3:19:50 Adirondack adventurer loves to kayak, canoe, hike, climb and run Patch Sprint
7 25 Melinda Burkhardt 3:21:47 Like clockwork, every year Mindy finishes between 3:10 and 3:25
8 28 Katrin Schreiner 3:24:22 Her family has had a combined 42 Patch Sprint finishes since 2006
9 103 Sheridan Millington 3:28:40 Her fastest mile: 6:07.  At that pace she should run Patch Sprint in a just over an hour
10 81 Emily Russell 3:34:22 I expect her to come back in January to break current women's winter record (5:20:20)
11 29 Katie Moffett 3:37:34 Her watch craps out twice; Strava says she ran Patch in 1:49:12. Nice!
12 30 Lisa Winters 3:42:44 Name Anagram:   Realists Win
13 32 Pam Gonzalez 3:44:49 Most all-time consecutive finishes among female racers (12)
14 99 Rebecca Coryea 3:51:54 Ranked 43,421st in the 2015 USA CrossFit rankings.  Really.
15 100 Gianna Coryea 3:51:54 2019 CVAC High School all-conference gymnast
16 78 Andee Bucciarelli 4:03:17 Hangs with Mac and Zack on Friday; a little hungover on Saturday
17 40 Sarah Green 4:03:42 See above
18 90 Kathlynn Allen 4:07:45 If she’s as tough as the mountain she shares a name with, she will be just fine.
19 45 Tate Aronstein 4:14:06 What's the hurry? Everyone gets the same medal.
20 87 Lauren Hughes 4:15:21 An avalanche on Pok-O involving a couple dozen or so racers could move her into top-3
21 74 Arianne Spaulding 4:16:14 A long lay off, and new trails means this sports star won't PR.
22 82 Klari Prikazsky 4:25:46 Hands down second-coolest name in this year's race
23 69 Ruby Gibson 4:30:28 Joins a picnic with strangers atop Rattlensake. Loses 23 minutes
24 48 Alli Crahan 4:36:26 Just using this for basketball training. Still sets new PR.
25 50 Nora Wootten 4:47:35 Wins not one, but two raffle prizes
26 57 Charlotte Bush 4:53:30 Falls in love with Peter Joelson, slows down to be with him
27 37 Annie Chalnick 4:59:13 Catches a ride from a passing ATV on the Sugarloaf approach. No one finds out.
28 Stephanie Lylis DNF Quickest route to the post-race Cantina party is to skip the actual race course
29 Augusta Wilson DNS Chooses to save her strength for Sunday's Alumni & Friends work projects
Place (Net)  # CLYDESDALE Finish Time The Fat  (total time - pounds exceeding 200 = Net Time)
         
1 66 Andrew Chalnick 6:00:02 Actual Clydesdales deposit road apples on course, he stumbles and skins knees
2 Liam Davis DQ As usual covers course in impressive fashion (2:35:55).  Just not on race day.
Ken Herz DNS Falls in love with Gazebo, Fails to make it to start line
Place  # HALF-SPRINT Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 33 Tom Moffett 50:41 Late switch to the half-sprint because "Dammit, it's about time I podiumed in a division!"
2 112 Mike Taptick 52:09 Picks off two racers in last mile then pulls over two drunk drivers later in the day
3 143 Kelly Kupers 56:26 NYC gal happy to be in the mountains.  Not happy about the black flies.
4 125 Mike Daley 58:00 Has there been a 21st century Patch Sprint without a Daley family member?  Not.
5 134 Sami Daley 1:02:11 Always nice to know there's a Doctor on course… even if it's a PhD
6 156 Tom Lynch 1:05:02 Doc Browning talks his ear off; stops at infirmary to get sewed back on
7 77 Kathleen Wiley 1:08:43 Bemoans the fact that she wore long pants instead of shorts
8 141 Sam Wooten 1:11:41 Name Anagram:  Woman's Toe
9 144 Leandro Garrido 1:13:10 Forgets to bring course map and has to bushwack up Rattlesnake
10 145 Pedro Boller 1:13:22 2019 Patch Sprint Half-Sprint South American Champion
11 157 Tor Killingsworth 1:15:10 Chocolate ice cream and soda at homestead aid station is the secret of his success
12 135 Sue Gadway 1:20:46 Asks about the possibility of doing a quarter-sprint in 2020
13 137 Phil Corell 1:32:23 Lowest 46er number in race field (#224W).  How many living people have lower number?
140 Dena Greenman 1:38:45 Re-discovers the joy of running; races full Patch and two marathons in 2020
15 142 Ava Schneider 1:38:45 Name Anagram: Vanished Race
Ike Lang DNF No comment
Place  # RELAY Finish Time The Skinny
         
Blue Boar Hell Hockey DNF A bunch of Bostoners rooting for the Blues. This can only mean trouble
Place  # TREKKER Finish Time The Skinny
         
*** TREKKERS do not compete for placing
- 70 Dan Marin 3:46:42 Victory backflip on top of Pok-O, of course
- 108 Ryan Repka 3:58:05 Candy Store screamed, Makes right at pillars, waits in line at Trading Post
- 107 Patrick Rooney 4:00:45 Just misses Three Hour Club… by an hour
- 91 Samuel Sprague 4:24:04 Name Anagram:  Rumple Sausage
- 43 Kayla Beltran 4:25:44 Too much soft side living. Adds a couple minutes.
- 44 Megan Marulli 4:25:45 Name Anagram:  Alarming Mule
- 97 Megan Baehre 4:38:20 Megan Baehre sees a bear on Bare.  Can't bear to deal with it.
- 98 Kate Stuckey 4:38:20 There are some racers in the field whom Danny Sheridan has never heard of
- 105 Andy Wekin 4:49:17 Strong at first but tends to wekin on the latter part of the trek
- 47 Karen Foster 5:03:27 Forgets to stop GPS until late July; total race time:  1,248 hours
- 61 Peter Joelson 5:14:24 Quite upset that they have rebuilt the 1812 Homestead house with a modern design
- 53 Kathy Mullholland 5:35:47 What can you write about Kathy that hasn't already been written a million times?
- 54 Natalie Wylie 5:35:47 Give or take an hour
- 58 David Joelson 5:43:18 Jack Swan stops at base of Bare to offer him  job on Trump Re-election campaign
- 59 Tom Nold 5:43:18 With Brad Spaulding not on hand to drag them down, the quartet all finish this year
- 60 Bob Mason 5:43:18 Struggles with a couple of nagging injuries but guts it through to the end
62 Charlie Cary 5:43:18 Name Anagram:  Archery Call
52 Sierra Moscato DNF Jogs the first 50 yards before declaring "Enough running for one day"
71 Matt Moscato DNS Archie may be good at Skijoring but when it comes to the Patch, he wants no part
76 Gail Sears DNS On way to race she made "A quick stop" at Turning Stone casino; never seen again
49 Olivia Politi DQ Spotted taking the older, non-sanctioned trail up Pok-O
Place  # KINDER SPRINT Finish Time The Skinny
         
1 185 Ethan Daley 27:45 Repeats as champion.  Refuses to talk to the media after
2 186 Sophie Chromczak 28:24 39 seconds short of being just the second ever female Kindersprint champion
3 187 Olivia Drowne 31:27 Name Anagram:  Owned Ravioli
4 194 Graham Dorr 33:08 Is his middle name cracker or front?
5 188 Eddie Chromczak 42:19 Watches Avengers: Endgame 26 times; blindness causes him to stumble often
6 195 Owen Tarala 46:46 Weighed down by too much bling
7 191 Brooke Taptick 49:47 Pulls trail markers off of trees explaining "they take all the route finding challenge away"
169 Josie Moffett 49:47 Can she be only 7 years old?  Seems like she's been racing for 15!
9 190 Cate Daley 50:06 Spotted picking flowers on edge of a steep cliff
10 192 Hailey Taptick 55:23 Look out for the hail storm!  Seriously, check the forecast!
11 189 Elle Russo 57:24 Drops cookies along trail knowing it will slow Walter down on course
12 193 Walter Gang 1:09:14 Watching movie Free Solo inspires him to stray off course a little bit on
         
Above list based on entrants and projected entrants through May 24
Race number, subject to change, based on most recent placing
SEE RESULTS FROM PAST YEARS

[1]
Is he fully recovered from a stint on the DL?